Oil's wild first half of the year upended everything Wall Street expected

Oil market watchers entered 2026 widely in agreement on an emerging multibillion-barrel glut that was sure to depress prices throughout the year. That is not what they received.

Instead, a series of unexpected geopolitical catalysts — above all, the war in Iran — pushed oil prices to levels not seen since 2022, creating the largest energy supply shock on record and forcing traders to set aside all expectations for the first half of the year.

What are current analyst expectations for future oil supplies?

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect global markets?

What caused oil prices to surge unexpectedly in 2026?

Why didn't oil prices reach predicted $200+ levels during crisis?

Now, with Persian Gulf oil exports renormalizing as the war in Iran seemingly winds down, traders enter the second half of the year in an uneasy calm after the storm.

"Despite the daily noise, markets feel remarkably calm, but comfort is not the same as clarity," Macquarie commodities strategists, led by Peter Taylor, wrote to clients.

"H2-26 may prove calmer, but we have set the scene for surprises."

Coming into 2026, Brent (BZ=F) futures, the international crude oil benchmark, were trading at $6

Fuente original: Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/oils-wild-first-half-of-the-year-upended-everything-wall-street-expected-100000651.html)