The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 51.5% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 43.2%).
Compared with the May 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments is broadly unrevised for 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages, as it smooths one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics.
For 2026 the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters. This increase over the course of the year reflects the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments
Fuente original: Banco Central Europeo (https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr260617~79dfc49802.en.html)